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RACES-2-WATCH
Posted: July 29, 2008
In an incumbent-loving state like Delaware, term
limits for governor and political ambitions are
conspiring to create three open offices in statewide
elections. The vacancy rate has not been so high since
1992.
Not on Capitol Hill, though. Unless Democrat Joe
Biden gets a tap on the shoulder from Barack Obama, he
will be sauntering toward a state record-setting seventh
term in the U.S. Senate, with Republican Mike Castle on
track for a record ninth term in the U.S. House of
Representatives.
The rest brings suspense. The Democrats have momentum
and a voter advantage -- there are nearly 85,000 more
Democrats than Republicans in registration that is 46
percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican and 23 percent
others -- but primaries could undermine them.
|
Office |
Democrats |
Republicans |
Rundown |
Outlook |
|
U.S. Senate |
Joe Biden |
Christine O'Donnell |
From a race with Obama and
Clinton to Christine O'Donnell? Joe's biggest
challenge will be keeping a straight face |
Safe Democrat |
|
U.S. House |
Karen Hartley-Nagle Mike Miller
Jerry Northington |
Mike Castle |
Castle gets another free pass. He runs for the
history books, instead. Re-election ties him
with Democratic Sen. Tom Carper for 12 statewide
wins, the Delaware record |
Safe Republican |
|
Governor |
John Carney
Jack Markell |
Bill Lee
Mike Protack |
For the first time in a
generation since Republican Pete du Pont won in
1976, there is no clear front-runner for
governor. (Not you, Protack) |
Tilts Democrat |
|
Lt governor |
Matt Denn |
Charlie Copeland |
Ambition alert! Watch out
for the intensity of this one. It is not really
for lieutenant governor but for next governor |
Tilts Democrat |
|
Insurance commissioner |
Gene Reed
Tom Savage Karen Weldin
Stewart |
John Brady |
A muddled Democratic field
gives Republicans a rare shot to take back a
statewide office |
Too early to call |
In the Delaware General Assembly, control of the
state Senate is not in doubt. Control of the state House
of Representatives very much is.
The 21-member Senate currently has 13 Democrats and
eight Republicans. With all 13 Democrats either not up
for election or unopposed, their majority is guaranteed.
It puts the focus on three open seats, all vacated by
Republicans.
The 41-member House has 22 Republicans and 19
Democrats. A combination of open seats and threatened
Republican incumbents, not to mention a political
atmosphere for change, gives the Democrats a decided
opportunity to take over.
|
Office |
Democrats |
Republicans |
Registration |
Rundown |
Outlook |
|
4th Senate |
Dee Durham
Michael Katz |
Richard Abbott
John Clatworthy
Michael Fleming |
Voters:
31,109
Dem: 34%
Rep: 42%
Other: 24% |
The Republicans will always
have Chateau Country. This is one open seat that
still has them smiling, even with a scrambled
primary |
Likely Republican |
|
10th Senate |
Bethany Hall-Long |
Andrea Daley
Jim Weldin |
Voters:
31,480
Dem: 44%
Rep: 31%
Other: 25% |
Although the
Newark-Middletown seat was Republican, Hall-Long
has registration and six years of House
experience on her side |
Likely Democrat |
|
17th Senate |
Brian Bushweller |
James Hutchison |
Voters:
28,031
Dem: 45%
Rep: 30%
Other: 25% |
Bushweller, once a Cabinet
officer, goes for an open seat he nearly won in
'04. "Hutch" counters with name ID as
Dover's ex-mayor |
Tossup |
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7th House |
Bryon Short |
Jim Bowers |
Voters:
14,846
Dem: 38%
Rep: 39%
Other: 23% |
Democrats snatched this
Brandywine Hundred district in an '07 special
election. Both parties desperately need it to
form a majority |
Leans Democrat |
|
8th House |
Quinn Johnson |
Martha Sturtevant |
Voters:
18,244
Dem: 46%
Rep: 30%
Other: 24% |
Democrats not only have a
registration edge, but they got a head start in
finding a candidate for the open
Middletown-Townsend seat |
Likely Democrat |
|
9th House |
Rebecca Walker |
Dick Cathcart |
Voters:
18,026
Dem: 42%
Rep: 34%
Other: 24% |
Cathcart, the majority
leader, faces a candidate hoping to improve in
her second foray for a lower New
Castle County seat |
Likely Republican |
|
18th House |
Mike Barbieri |
Terry Spence |
Voters:
12,399
Dem: 51%
Rep: 25%
Other: 24% |
Although Spence is the
House speaker, this rematch has the Republicans
nervous in a 2-1 Democratic district in
Stanton-Christiana |
Leans Republican |
|
21st House |
Pat Creedon |
Michael Ramone |
Voters:
14,588
Dem: 40%
Rep: 34%
Other: 26% |
Long a Republican seat, the Pike Creek Valley
district is in play due to Rep. Pam Maier's
sudden retirement |
To early to call |
|
27th House |
Earl Jaques |
Vince Lofink |
Voters:
13,821
Dem: 45%
Rep: 31%
Other: 24% |
Jacques came close in '06.
If the Bear-Glasgow voters believe the sins of
Lofink's son should be visited on the father, he
is endangered |
Tossup |
|
31st House |
Darryl Scott |
Nancy Wagner |
Voters:
12,355
Dem: 46%
Rep: 30%
Other: 24% |
Wagner is a fighter,
determined to keep her Dover seat despite
criticism of her family's his-and-her jobs on
the public payroll |
Likely Republican |
|
32nd House |
Brad Bennett |
Donna Stone |
Voters:
11,240
Dem: 44%
Rep: 30%
Other: 26% |
Stone is a national lawmakers' leader, but
Bennett knows politics. Democrats are talking
upset in the Dover seat his dad once had |
Tossup |
|
35th House |
Aaron Chaffinch |
David Wilson |
Voters:
12,101
Dem: 42%
Rep: 37%
Other: 21% |
Name ID is no problem for either Chaffinch, a
state police ex-colonel, or Wilson, a county row
officer, for a conservative Bridgeville-centered
seat |
Leans Republican |
|
41st House |
John Atkins
Barbra Lifflander |
Greg Hastings |
Voters:
14,828
Dem: 42%
Rep: 38%
Other: 20% |
It is all about Atkins in
south central Sussex and whether voters will
give him a new chance in a new party |
Tossup |
Incumbents in bold. Voter registration figures
are from July 1
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